Scenario I
At the upcoming Baghdad meeting with the P5+1, Iran agrees to ship abroad all its enriched uranium to 20 percent, limits its enrichment to 5 percent, and allows the IAEA to inspect its military testing facility and the under-mountain enrichment site at Fordo. Once satisfied that Iran has complied, the P5+1 agrees to lift sanctions on Iranian banking and oil exports. Crisis avoided.May 15, 2012
Scenario II and III
Iran agrees to the above conditions, but the P5+1 does not offer to lift sanctions even if Iran does everything demanded. Crisis builds, but Iran gains the high ground, undercutting Israeli military attack as long as Iran doesn’t weaponize. However, If Iran stalls, agrees to nothing, thereby convincing the P5+1 (and Israel) that it could only be pursuing a nuclear weapon, war is just around the corner. Israel strikes. May 15, 2012
Extreme Partisanship in Foreign Policy
May 14, 2012
Nicholas Berry
Republicans have usually counted on their reputation for competence in foreign affairs to serve them well in presidential elections. That is, until George W. Bush exhibited gross incompetence in starting and managing two wars. Now, it appears the Republicans in Congress, their presumptive presidential candidate, and their neocon media supporters are trying to regain the foreign policy high ground by goading President Barak Obama into foreign policy adventures that are bound to fail. ...more
How Hollande Should Handle Merkel
May 15, 2012
Charles Grant
The election of François Hollande as French president has excited some of those who blame Germany's emphasis on fiscal austerity for many of the eurozone's ills. Hollande has promised to refocus EU policies on growth and employment. Countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy – their recessions aggravated by the EU's insistence that they shrink their budget deficits – would welcome a new approach....more
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