Why China Says "No" to a U.S.-Iran Confrontation

November 22, 2007

Nicholas Berry

Attempts by the Bush administration to round up UN Security Council votes to further sanction Iran for its nuclear program have hit a roadblock from China. Russia also is resisting Washington’s full court press on Tehran.

Both veto-wielding Security Council members understandably fear that a heightened confrontation could lead to war. They fully realize that Iran, for national pride and policy commitment, will not give up what it says is a program for nuclear energy, and that the United States, pushed by Israel, believes Iran is actually pursuing nuclear weapons, which the U.S. is committed to stopping.

This is a formula for war.

And a U.S.-Iran war would have a devastating impact on the national interests of China (and Russia).

So, to inhibit if not stop a likely war, China is working to prevent the war’s international legitimacy via the UN and to deter the Bush administration via close China-Iran ties.

What Chinese national interests would suffer from this war?

China, the fastest growing consumer of oil estimated at 40 percent of new demand, gets 14 percent of its oil from Iran, its largest supplier. Chinese leadership has been and is committed to a policy of comprehensive economic development as its prime national interest. Economic weakness and war have been the prime source of instability in
China for centuries. These two factors are related. Economic weakness made China vulnerable to foreign humiliation and invasion leading to political turmoil. Thus, for national security, China must be economically strong. This would also promote domestic satisfaction with government, hence stability.

Chinese leaders are avid students of history. They know that a U.S. attack on Iran will be designed to devastate Iran’s economic infrastructure, even if its main targets are nuclear facilities. They witnessed this military emphasis in World War II, Korea, Vietnam, the First Gulf War, Serbia, and the U.S.-backed Israeli war on Lebanon in 2006. They know that Iran’s ability to pump and export oil will be severely curtailed. They know that shipping in the Persian Gulf will be hazardous, resulting in onerous maritime insurance.
They know that the price of oil will skyrocket, as it has done in conjunction with all wars in the oil-rich Middle East. They know that without oil revenues, Iran will not be able to maintain buying Chinese imports, now increasing at record levels. They know that the U.S. dollar, which has fallen 40 percent to the euro in the past two years, will tumble further. Holding a trillion in dollar paper, China will see its currency reserves plummet. Finally, they see war benefiting militarists in Washington, who might very well target China next.

All this will be really bad news.

It should surprise no one that China has informed the White House that anything close to Chapter VII UN sanctions on Iran are off the table. Before leaving for Tehran last week for talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi suggested that China would reject U.S. efforts for a new UN resolution. “We believe that all parties should show patience and sincerity over this issue, while any sanctions, particularly unilateral sanctions, will do no good.”

Well, this has not stopped Bush from trying. The administration even accuses China of trying to protect its economic interests and even misreading its economic interests. Bush’s national security advisor Stephen Hadley told reporters last week: “China needs to play a more responsible role on Iran, needs to recognize that China is going to be very dependent in the decades ahead on Middle East oil, and, therefore, China, for its own development and its own purposes, is going to need a stable Middle East, and that an Iran armed with nuclear weapons is not a prescription for stability in the Middle East.” Hadley is hinting that an American military response to Iran would cause this instability. Of course, this is the very scenario China is trying to prevent.

Chinese deterrence comes in the form of close physical ties with Chinese personnel and investments inside Iran. Scores of Chinese companies are engaged in various industries in Iran, including those defense related. In effect, a U.S. attack on Iran could not help but kill Chinese and destroy their property. Washington would then face an angry China, one even more hostile than it was during the spring 2001 EP-3 incident involving a collision with the U.S. spy plane and a Chinese fighter. China will then be compelled to somehow punish a militaristic America.

China is also supporting International Atomic Energy Agency intrusive inspections of Iran’s enrichment facilities and cautioning Iran to abide by its commitment to enrich only for nuclear fuel. If followed, this too would deter a U.S. attack, because evidence of a weapon program would not exist.

I suspect, but lack evidence, that Chinese officials also believe that preventing a U.S.-Iran war is actually in U.S. national interests as well. It is no secret that Beijing takes some satisfaction from the fact that the United States is bogged down in two wars, exhausting its military and compiling debt, thus creating a window of reduced tension in East Asia it can use to continue its economic surge (and relieve the pre-9/11 hostility of the Bush administration). But another war, also unlikely to be won by Washington, could further bankrupt America and totally disrupt the U.S. political system – with unknown consequences for all concerned. So, in spite of abjuring weakening China’s militaristic competitor, another war, Chinese leaders believe, would not serve American interests and severely damage their own.

Nicholas Berry is Director of Foreign Policy Forum, a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, and associated with the National Security Network